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Answer :
A tracking signal quantifies the bias in a forecast, providing a method for monitoring its accuracy.
A tracking signal is a statistical measure used to monitor the performance of a forecast. It compares the cumulative difference between actual values and forecasted values over a given period. The purpose of the tracking signal is to identify any systematic bias in the forecast, which refers to consistent over- or under-prediction. By quantifying the bias, the tracking signal helps in evaluating the validity and accuracy of the forecast. A tracking signal is calculated by dividing the cumulative forecast error by a measure of forecast variability, such as the mean absolute deviation (MAD) or standard deviation. A positive tracking signal indicates a consistent overestimation of the forecast, while a negative tracking signal suggests a consistent underestimation. If the tracking signal falls within an acceptable range, it indicates that the forecast is performing well. However, if the tracking signal exceeds the predefined threshold, it signals the need for adjustments or improvements in the forecasting process. Overall, a tracking signal enables organizations to monitor forecast accuracy and make informed decisions based on the reliability of the forecast.
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