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Answer :
A tracking signal provides a method for monitoring a forecast by quantifying the bias. Bias is the tendency of a forecast to consistently overestimate or underestimate actual values over time. A tracking signal is a statistical tool used to identify when a forecast is consistently biased and needs to be adjusted.
The tracking signal compares the cumulative difference between the actual values and the forecasted values over time, and when the difference exceeds a certain threshold, it signals that the forecast is biased. The validity of a forecast refers to its accuracy in predicting future values, while the throughput refers to the amount of work completed within a certain time frame. Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring, and it is often used in forecasting to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. In summary, a tracking signal is a useful tool for monitoring the bias in a forecast, and it can help organizations to adjust their forecasting methods to improve accuracy and reliability. By keeping an eye on the tracking signal, organizations can ensure that their forecasts are providing valuable insights and helping them to make informed decisions about the future.
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